Big Supply, Big Problems as Solana's NFT Market Rejects Large Collections

New NFT collections have learned a painful lesson this week. If it wasn’t obvious due to stagnant floor prices and diminishing trade volume, launching a fresh collection in these conditions is a difficult task.

Despite commentators claiming these hyped collections will usher in a “new era” and whitelist spots selling at over $50 apiece on open markets, launches from Pathfinders and Hermans have failed to meet expectations.

Will Solana’s NFT market ever witness another successful 10,000 NFT collection? Or are small supplies the only way of conserving value?

Only 21% of Pathfinder’s Risk-Free NFTs Minted

Despite proposing a new, risk-free method of launching Solana NFTs, the Pathfinders collection faces difficulty minting out. At press time, only 2,125/10,000 NFTs have been minted, falling well short of expectations.

Pathfinder’s novel LST-backed NFT collection launched with noble intentions. Providing an alternative mechanic that aims to protect minters, the collection has launched Solana’s first un-ruggable NFTs.

Unlike standard NFT mints, Pathfinders NFTs are minted using pathSOL, the project’s native liquid staking token. Holders reserve the right to redeem their NFT for the underlying pathSOL used to mint the asset, essentially securing the NFT’s value at a minimum of 2pathSOL.

Regardless, Solana’s NFT community has largely ignored the project’s novel approach to minting. Supporters of the new mechanic took to social media to express their disappointment with the NFT community’s apparent apathy. 

Commentators noted that network participants have collectively poured thousands of SOL into extractive and malicious actors, but are unwilling to support builders providing meaningful alternatives.

‘Hyped’ New Mint Immediately Under Floor - Are Presales to Blame?

Boasting a sold-out presale that constituted 55% of the total supply, the Hermans NFT collection suffered a similar fate. Priced at 1.5 SOL per NFT, Hermans struggled to attract interest during the public mint, forcing the team to take drastic action.

Hermans trading on secondary marketplaces like Tensor and Magic Eden was locked until the mint was complete, meaning holders were unable to list their assets. The team took it upon themselves to buy all unminted assets. The Hermans’ treasury now holds over 1,600 NFTs, roughly 33% of the supply.

Almost immediately, the collection began trading beneath mint price as presales and regretful minters clamored to liquidate their holdings for SOL. Hermans currently exchange hands at 0.84 SOL, down 44% from the original mint price.

While poor NFT market conditions are a significant contributor to the recent slew of disappointing NFT launches, social media commentators have argued that NFT presales are also to blame.

Low Supply NFT Collections Retain Value

In recent years, NFT markets have witnessed countless large supply collections suffer devastating downtrends. 

Top Solana collections like Mad Lads, Tensorians (pictured), and Claynosaurs have all endured significant drawdowns, while dozens of less-resilient projects have effectively plummeted to zero.

Comparatively, low supply and 1/1 NFT collections have retained their value remarkably well. Limited supply art collections like Boogles, Dead King Society, and The SixNine are typically only available through OTC deals and have maintained comparatively stable floors, regardless of SOL price fluctuations.

Arguably, this suggests that the most valuable utility NFTs offer is access to exclusive communities. Alternatively, it could also indicate that low-supply collections with low market liquidity create an elite sense of perceived value, which has supported the valuations of these collections.

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